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Storm Team 10: An in depth look at the week ahead

Wind pattern at the 850mb level of the atmosphere (roughly 4500-5000 feet)for Saturday

**This was updated at 6:30 p.m. Monday Nov. 13, 2017.**

Here's the latest forecast from Monday night's 5PM news:

The steadier rain showers continue to move away this evening with some spotty light showers or drizzle likely overnight. Here are the headlines:

Tuesday looks mainly dry BUT lots of clouds will remain as the wind comes in from the north/northeast (a rather damp direction off the ocean). This is the high resolution NAM 3km model showing the depth of the cloud coverage for Tuesday:

Breaks of sunshine return Wednesday as high pressure passes over northern New England. The American GFS model below shows the total cloud percentage for Wednesday afternoon...it's quite low across our area!

The chance of rain on Thursday seems rather limited to a couple of hours as a fast moving cold front zips in from the west. Right now that window looks like it will be in the morning...roughly from 7am through noontime with a drier afternoon. Of course that timing may shift a bit as we draw closer. The European forecast model below shows a 6 hour accumulated rain total, ending at 1PM Thursday...most if not all of the rain is expected to be to our east after 1PM.

Potentially our biggest weather maker of the week will arrive Saturday. Right now it looks like we will see all rain here in southern New England based on the probablistic model emsemble forecasts but it is something we will watch closely. Most forecasts suggest strong upper level energy digging in across the Great Lakes with strong jet stream energy ahead of it. The GFS model below shows the wind at 850millibars in the atmosphere, roughly 4500-5000 feet...this energy will help fuel the developing storm.

Beyond this Saturday system will come a blast of brisk, chilly mid-November air. Pictured below is the European Ensemble Forecast, a blend of 51 different model runs. It shows the colder air mass sweeping in from east/central Canada in the wake of Saturday's storm...bottom line, Sunday looks chilly & windy!

Sunday will be dry but gusty...an early estimate of the wind gusts right now look to be in the 25-30mph based on the expected wind gradient differential in place over the northeast...stay tuned we'll keep you updated all week long.

Thanks for reading, Mark

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