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Saturday snow -- and what to expect

Our snow forecast from NBC10

Forecast trends have shown an increased confidence in our chances for accumulating snow this weekend:

Although this doesn't look like it will go down as one of the biggest storms we've seen in southern New England, it may end up bringing the season's first widespread snow accumulation:

The American forecast models, the NAM and GFS are in pretty good agreement on the potential of 3-5" of snow, starting midday Saturday with the height of the storm late afternoon through the evening. First the NAM:

As you can see, the GFS model is similar with the forecast of inland snow and rain/snow mix farther east toward the Cape & Islands:

The European forecast model paints a widespread accumulation potential of 4" or more across much of the area by Sunday morning as well:

With all of this in mind we have a current forecast of snow accumulations looking like this:

So yes indeed there is better agreement among the forecast models but I want us to remember a few things here:


1). The timing, with snow falling during the middle of the day on Saturday we will likely see little to no accumulation on the roads, most will be on the grass, at least until the sun gets lower in the sky, after 3pm.
2). Total snow potential may be near 6" but the actual amount of accumulation on the roads and driveways may be less due to initial melting...maybe more like 2-4"
3). The eventual track of the storm is still uncertain. As is ALWAYS the case with winter storms the exact track dictates where the most snow falls. So we will know more and have higher confidence in the snow potential on Friday IF the forecast models continue to be in this good aggreement.

Count on StormTeam10 to keep you updated.
Thanks, as always, for reading.
Mark

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