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StormTeam10: Halfway through a warm Fall

Average temps so fall

Hard to believe that this weekend marks the hafway point of "meteorological Fall"...the 3 months of September, October & November.
Heading into the season, the expectation was for above average temperatures:

The Atlantic Ocean basin features considerably warmer than usual water temperatures for this time of year...a major contributing factor to the forecast:

The average temperature for September was nearly 3.5° warmer than normal, in fact it was the 9th warmest Septemebr on record!
And so far this month, the average October temperture is nearly 8° warmer than normal...easily on pace to be the warmest October ever:

Of course there's still a long way to go not only in the month of October but if the forecast remains accurate as it has so far this season we should expect the month to end on quite a warm note:

I should point out that there really isn't any direct research that shows how a mild fall may affect the winter season...BUT we have been seeing a trend in recent years of how the warmer ocean basin can delay the onset of the coldest winter temps.

Will that be the case again this season? Certainly seems possible based on what we are seeing...but other factors like the El Nino/La Nina pattern and atmospheric blocking over the North Atlantic Ocean ultimately play the biggest roles in our winter season forecast.

So it's too early to say whether or not it will be a White Christmas but I just wouldn't put that snow shovel away in a hard to find to spot, you know you'll need it sooner or later!

Thanks for reading...Mark

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