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StormTeam10: Tuesday Nor'easter

Blizzard Warning for northern & western RI

Updated 11PM Monday Mark Searles
Here's the latest on Tuesday's nor'easter.

  • It's a tough forecast and here's why...track trends from recent forecast guidance continues to push the storm closer to the coastline...in situations like this we need to look at 2 main factors which will limit our snow accumulations:
    1). Warmer air becoming involved with a track closer to the coast OR especially over parts of the area changing snow to rain
    2). A track close to the RI coast will bring a significant amount of dry air into parts of the area...also limiting accumulations.

Recent forecast guidance shows the storm intensifying south of Long Island late Tuesday morning then perhaps passing near or even OVER Block Island late Tuesday afternoon

Dry air would work in across parts of the area with a track like the one above...reducing snow amounts:

This type of track will NOT produce prolific snow totals in our area...we would see the highest amounts farther to our west
This is exactly what the recent run of the GFS model shows, lower amounts localy, higher to our north & west due to the shift in the track:

So for now here's the timeline...

All of the area is under a Winter Storm Warning for the high likelihood of 6" or more of snow accumulation in much of the area (but read above for some of my doubt farther south!). A Blizzard Warning for northern & northwestern Rhode Island up through central and western Mass & much of Connecticut. It's these areas where the highest snow amounts will occur as well as where the combination of the strong wind and falling snow will create the worst travel conditions.

As you can see, the wind will be VERY strong Tuesday...beginning in the morning (roughly 8am) and lasting through much of the afternoon. The wind will drop off in the evenng then pick up again overnight into Wednesday but come in from the north or northwest as the storm passes into Maine.

Several inches of snow will accumulate for most of us before this mix & change...and, as you can imagine, once this mix happens the snow will become like cement!

Accumulations look like this...this COULD still shift a bit as the storm track becomes final

Certainly these are big snow totals for the month of March...as you can see it's not often we see single day snowstorms total 9" or more

Stay with us through the storm...updates here and on NBC10...thanks for reading...Mark

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