With a paltry 7.9" inches of snow so far this winter season at T.F. Green Airport in Warwick, about one-quarter of what we get in an average season, the thought of getting some snow Tuesday has a number of you in a flurry, while others are pining for Spring.
Either way, a double barreled storm system is evolving at this hour, with the main area of Low Pressure forecast to intensify and move towards the Great Lakes. However, a secondary Low is forecast to develop near the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia peninsula Tuesday as the snow begins to fall in Southern New England. A cold dome bubble of High Pressure over northeastern New England at that time is expected to keep the cold air in place for a little while at the onset of the storm, allowing for at least a couple hours of accumulating snow.
However, on a southeast flow of air off the Atlantic Ocean, wrapping into the Delmarva Low, a bit milder air should push in on a gusty wind, changing the snow along the coast to a mix then rain, with that line moving up towards the Providence area by late afternoon or early evening Tuesday. The question remains: how far inland will that line progress, and at what point during the system? All of these factors will play into accumulation forecasts that evolve over the next 24 hours. Based on the available information, expect 1-3" along the coast, Cape, and Islands before the changeover, 3-5" towards Providence, and 4-7" northwestern RI towards eastern CT, and central/western MA.
That is subject to change into Monday as more forecast guidance becomes available, but it's probably safe to say the afternoon/evening commute Tuesday will be highlighted by wintry weather.