'Fall' nearly over, top 5 warmest on record

Courtesy of Cheryl Sherman from Facebook

Meteorological "Fall" runs from September 1st through November 30th. So we are just a couple of days away from the end of this Fall season. As of Monday night we are still ranked first for the warmest Fall on record in the Providence area:

But this position is likely to change. Temps will be cold Tuesday morning...lower 20s for most of us (the average is 33°). And highs Tuesday afternoon will likely only reach the mid 40s (49° is the average high). So this will lower the numbers a bit .

But a mild Fall season is nothing new to us. In fact, the last 2 seasons from 2016 & 2015 are tied for the 5th warmest Fall on record. The bigger issue is what lies ahead for the winter. Here's what happened in terms of snow and temperatures after the previous 2 warm Fall seasons:

As you can see BOTH seasons ended up much warmer than average. The 2015-2016 season was not only warmer than average but also featured below normal snow fall. Last winter, however, brought a bit more snow than usual. The reason for the difference in snow was largely due to 2015-2016 being an El Nino winter (often a warm and wet winter pattern for southern New England). In fact, THAT El Nino was one of the strongest measured.

This winter is expected to transition into a La Nina pattern. This type of winter is hard to say for certain how much snow we should expect. The last 2 La Nina winter seasons were 2011-2012 and 2012-2013. One of those years we saw very little snow (15" 2011-12) while a year later, La Nina was just as strong we picked above average snowfall (40").

This winter's pattern will be dictated by many factors but I suspect in terms of temperatures we will be talking about milder than average readings at the end of the next 3 months...stay tuned!
And thanks for reading, Mark

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