Storm Team 10: Latest on Hurricane Jose

Hurricane Jose Friday evening

"Jose" was upgraded BACK to a hurricane Friday evening as of 5 p.m. The storm has been sitting over the same relative location for a few days, as a result it churned up some cooler water preventing the storm from strengthening.

Now that it is moving again it will likely gain some strength over the next few days. It is expected that Jose will remain off the east coast of the United States this weekend BUT I urge you to watch future forecasts closely. The amount of uncertainty grows farther out in the forecast period.

As Jose moves north early next week and passes over cooler ocean water it is expected that it will weaken from a hurricane back to a tropical storm.

Several elements are at play in the atmosphere which will ultimately dictate where Jose will go and when this timeline plays out. Focus on the CONE NOT THE LINE!!!! Errors as large as 200 miles or more are frequent for days 4 and 5 relative to tropical systems...and we saw the eventual path of Hurricane Irma shift rather significantly just a few hours before the storm moved over the Florida peninsula last weekend.

Most forecast guidance suggests Jose will curve to our south and east BUT it looks to be a little too close for comfort...remember even if the storm tracks 100-150 miles off our coast the envelope of tropical storm force wind (39mph or higher) COULD reach back across most of our area. It seems as though (as of right now, Friday night) that the POTENTIAL arrival of tropical storm force winds could be as early as Tuesday morning. We MAY be facing a gusty and rainy period from early Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon.

It seems imminent at this point that at the very least we will be facing rough seas off to our south along with an increased risk of dangerous rip currents...a closer approach would bring stronger wind gusts back across more of the area...enhancing the impact of the storm.

Of course with still so much uncertainty I urge you to check back often with us online, on social media and of course all weekend long on NBC 10 News.

Thanks for reading...Mark

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