What's Expected for the Winter Ahead?
Many of you have been asking "what's the Winter going to be like this season"? Well, let me preface the following remarks with the fact that, while forecasting has become much better over the years, long range is still not an exact science, but it IS getting better. Predictions from the "Farmer's Almanac", based in Lewiston, Maine, are done with a 'proprietary formula' that dates back to 1818, taking into account sunspots, the motion of the tides, how the planets align in the sky, and a host of other factors. The "Old Farmer's Almanac", out of Dublin, New Hampshire uses a different "top secret mathematical and astronomical formula". both claim to have a good track record, although when you dig deep into the post-mortem analysis, there are major errors as well as some broad-brush 'hits'.
The latest National Weather Service Long-Lead Seasonal Analysis was performed October 18th, 2018. The next one will be issued November 15th, for a sneak peek at the probabilities of 'what to expect' across the Continental U.S. In the October run, for the months of December, 2018, January and February of 2019 in Southern New England, it states we'll have an average 3 month period of precipitation...
And for the same three months December, January and February of 2019 for our area regarding temperatures, it calls for a 40 percent greater than average chance of warmer than average temperatures. So, in summary, warmer than average, with average precip. (rain or snow, of course depending on the temperature!)
Meanwhile, the Autumn colors have been spectacular!
We'll see what the Winter really holds!